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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.