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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."